Published: 2011 & Pages: 500
Here are 10x short lessons from this book:-1. Two Systems of Thought: The book introduces two systems of thought known as System 1 and System 2. System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little effort and no sense of voluntary control. System 2 involves mental activities that require effort, like complex computations. 2. The Lazy Controller: System 2 is somewhat lazy and tends to defer to System 1. If System 2 is occupied, System 1 has a free hand. Thus, when we are distracted or under pressure, our thoughts and actions often rooted in System 1 could be bias. 3. The Anchoring Effect: Our decisions can be influenced by completely irrelevant numbers. For instance, if you’re negotiating a salary and you start from a higher number, you usually end closer to your desired sum. 4. The Availability Heuristic: Things that come to mind easily tend to be perceived as more frequent or probable. This is due to the influence of our memory which is biased by the memorability of events resulting in incorrect conclusions. 5. Overconfidence and Optimism Bias: We often overestimate our abilities and future prospects. This is due to both overconfidence and optimism biases that skew our perception and judgments. 6. The Halo Effect: We have a predisposition to believe that if people are good at one thing, they are good at others as well. Thus, this cognitive bias can lead to oversimplified and usually false perceptions of others. 7. Substituting Difficult Questions: When faced with a difficult question, we might unconsciously substitute it with an easier one. This heuristic can help cope with difficult situations, but can also lead to inaccurate decisions. 8. Prospect Theory: Our decision-making changes when faced with potential losses or gains. We’re generally loss-averse and place more importance on avoiding losses rather than acquiring equivalent gains. 9. Regression to the Mean: Extreme events (both good and bad) are likely to be followed by events that are more average. Our failure to understand this concept can lead to inappropriate reactions and predictions. 10. Hindsight Bias: After an event occurs, we tend to see it as inevitable and predictable. This “knew-it-all-along” effect can lead to overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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System 1 and System 2.
System 2 tends to defer to System 1 when occupied.
Through the Anchoring Effect.
They are perceived as more frequent or probable.
Overconfidence and Optimism Bias.
Believing someone good at one thing is good at others; it leads to oversimplified perceptions.
Substitute it with an easier one.
We are generally loss-averse and prioritize avoiding losses.
Events that are more average; failure to understand can lead to inappropriate reactions.
Hindsight Bias.